Three Months On: Syrians in the EU After the Fall of the Assad Regime
What happens to Syrians seeking protection in the EU?
On December 9, 2024, one day after the fall of the Assad regime, Greece suspended the processing of asylum applications from Syrian nationals, affecting approximately 9,000 applicants. This decision aligned with the European Union's collective response to the recent political developments in Syria, including the collapse of the Assad regime. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reacted immediately, urging states to continue providing Syrians with international protection until the situation in Syria stabilises.
The EU, on the other hand, resorted to coercing Syrians into signing voluntary return agreements. The Cypriot government faces accusations of employing deceit to pressure Syrians into return agreements under duress. Allegations include denial of asylum access, unfounded criminal accusations, and unlawful detention under poor conditions, leading refugees to sign agreements under threat of forced deportation. The EU-funded ‘Assisted Voluntary Return Programme’ provides Cyprus with the resources to conduct these operations. The high number of Syrian asylum seekers agreeing to return - over 1300 in December and January - suggests that Cypriot authorities have been successful in employing violence, threats, and misinformation to force Syrians to leave Cyprus. Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Syrians in Bulgaria have been pressured into accepting voluntary returns to their home country. Testimonies from people on the move reveal that Bulgarian authorities subjected them to coercion and intimidation to secure consent for their return. Humanitarian organisations, such as No Name Kitchen (NNK), documented the severe harassment of Syrians, including women and children, by Bulgarian authorities. They were victims of extensive interrogations and coerced into signing return documents, often without proper translation services, under provision of misleading and inaccurate advice about their legal rights and threats of violence. Residents of Harmanli camp in southern Bulgaria near the Greek and Turkish borders reported threats of reprisals from authorities after holding a protest against these instances of harassment and the mass rejection of their asylum claims in late January which lasted for several days.
Coercion, deceit and duress
The EU, on the other hand, resorted to coercing Syrians into signing voluntary return agreements. The Cypriot government faces accusations of employing deceit to pressure Syrians into return agreements under duress. Allegations include denial of asylum access, unfounded criminal accusations, and unlawful detention under poor conditions, leading refugees to sign agreements under threat of forced deportation. The EU-funded ‘Assisted Voluntary Return Programme’ provides Cyprus with the resources to conduct these operations. The high number of Syrian asylum seekers agreeing to return - over 1300 in December and January - suggests that Cypriot authorities have been successful in employing violence, threats, and misinformation to force Syrians to leave Cyprus. Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Syrians in Bulgaria have been pressured into accepting voluntary returns to their home country. Testimonies from people on the move reveal that Bulgarian authorities subjected them to coercion and intimidation to secure consent for their return. Humanitarian organisations, such as No Name Kitchen (NNK), documented the severe harassment of Syrians, including women and children, by Bulgarian authorities. They were victims of extensive interrogations and coerced into signing return documents, often without proper translation services, under provision of misleading and inaccurate advice about their legal rights and threats of violence. Residents of Harmanli camp in southern Bulgaria near the Greek and Turkish borders reported threats of reprisals from authorities after holding a protest against these instances of harassment and the mass rejection of their asylum claims in late January which lasted for several days.
Other EU member states have voiced their ambition to implement return programmes, marking a further escalation after the EU-wide suspension of Syrian asylum applications. While European authorities may be right not to base decisions regarding asylum claims on outdated or rapidly changing circumstances, the abrupt and sweeping suspension affecting all Syrians regardless of their individual cases raises concerns. The timing and delivery strongly suggest it was driven more by political motives, particularly to satisfy supporters of conservative, populist, and radical parties, than by the obligation to uphold international humanitarian law or support Syrians in their return home.
The evolving situation in Syria
Therefore, it is vital to continue assessing the individual asylum claims of Syrian nationals as the situation in Syria remains unsafe. Civilian casualties through armed conflict and hostilities occur frequently in regions such as eastern Aleppo, Ar-Raqqa, and Al-Hasakeh. Israel's incursion into Syria adds to the security risks. Shortly after Assad’s fall, Israeli forces not only seized and occupied a ‘buffer zone’ along the Syrian-Israeli border but also moved further into Syrian territory and launched numerous airstrikes. Moreover, many Syrians fear they are regarded as regime collaborators or religious enemies, particularly Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians.
The security situation in Syria has nevertheless improved since December 8. By the end of January, over 200.000 Syrians had returned to their home country, especially those who had sought shelter in neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan, or Türkiye. However, since December 8, at least 70.000 Syrians migrated from Syria to Lebanon, many arriving in Lebanon after returning to Syria only temporarily. In addition to ongoing security concerns, they find it impossible to make a living and rebuild their homes. This highlights that security is not the only issue at stake - economic recovery is equally important to enable Syrians to return home.
European authorities must establish protection frameworks that reflect both humanitarian and legal responsibilities
Based on these insights, European policymakers would be advised to provide a circular migration programme. This means allowing Syrians to move between Syria and the EU. Circular migration can benefit countries of origin, in this case Syria, through an “influx of new skills and capital.” The return of Syrians is essential to rebuilding the country, yet it is imperative that European authorities provide them with the security of being able to re-enter the EU in case the situation in Syria destabilises. Unlike the current approach, which puts new applications on hold and leaves hundreds of thousands uncertain whether their protection status and right to enter the EU will be renewed, a circular migration programme would serve the interests of the EU and the Syrian diaspora.
However, the EU signalled that it is determined to prevent people on the move from crossing its borders, regardless of their nationality. While the forced returns in Cyprus and Bulgaria have not been acknowledged by European authorities, Commission President von der Leyen’s public announcement on December 17, 2024, to provide Türkyie with a further €1 billion to ‘host’ people on the move sends a clear message. Previous payments to Türkiye have been proven to fund measures immobilising and deporting people on the move and preventing them from seeking protection in the EU, as well as detaining, abusing, and killing Syrians and Afghans in removal centres. Consequently, it is unsurprising that the overwhelming majority of Syrians are unlikely to leave Lesvos, Greece, and other parts of the EU and return to Syria
The EU's response to the fall of the Assad regime has placed thousands of Syrians in a dangerous limbo, with many facing coercion, intimidation, and unlawful deportation. The suspension of asylum applications, combined with forced returns in Cyprus and Bulgaria, signals a political rather than humanitarian approach—one that disregards international protection obligations. While the situation in Syria remains unstable, with ongoing conflict, economic devastation, and targeted persecution, European policymakers must uphold the right to asylum and ensure that Syrians are not pressured into returning to unsafe conditions. Instead of restrictive policies that force Syrians into precarious situations, the EU should implement a circular migration programme that allows for voluntary returns while ensuring the right to re-enter if conditions deteriorate. This would not only support Syria’s reconstruction but also uphold Europe’s commitment to human rights and international law. The current strategy, based on border fortification and externalisation, does not provide a sustainable or ethical solution. To support Syrians, European authorities must prioritise fair asylum procedures, end forced returns, and establish protection frameworks that reflect both humanitarian and legal responsibilities.
Words by Leonard Kersting